DCCM completed a hydrodynamic and sediment-transport study to assess the risk of the Mississippi River forming a cutoff across the Dogtooth Island Peninsula following the Len Small Levee breach. The team developed a high-resolution, two-dimensional Adaptive Hydraulics model covering the Upper Mississippi River from Thebes, Illinois, to Birds Point, Missouri.

The model evaluated three terrain conditions representing the levee before the 2016 breach, immediately following the breach, and after the 2017 flood. It was calibrated using data from the 2011, 2015–2016, and 2017 floods, with a focus on flows exceeding 400,000 cubic feet per second. Nine conditions were analyzed to evaluate floodplain shear stress, flow patterns, and sediment movement. The model also assessed structural and nonstructural alternatives, including an overflow weir, revetment closure, kicker dike, and grade-control improvements, to help USACE manage flow and sediment across the peninsula.